Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 10.804197 12.655768 14.677622 17.042604 19.725985 22.668824 26.132981
2025-01-12 7.740025 10.210099 13.179694 16.981056 21.682912 27.270714 34.372847
2025-01-19 5.855164 8.567012 12.107504 16.993372 23.474508 31.681554 42.749300
2025-01-26 5.005777 7.987944 12.155235 18.264875 26.828372 38.216700 54.280038
2025-02-02 4.256246 7.352559 11.952995 19.068479 29.530376 44.037603 65.288600
2025-02-09 3.672036 6.823803 11.775038 19.807957 32.125541 49.836049 76.632295
2025-02-16 3.057030 6.109867 11.176297 19.785555 33.526910 53.970367 85.848145
2025-02-23 2.478538 5.332704 10.336784 19.236457 34.004666 56.706025 93.131130
2025-03-02 1.985723 4.602757 9.449378 18.463211 33.994554 58.627301 99.236141
2025-03-09 1.681484 4.170720 9.013122 18.382608 35.066260 62.251141 108.118650
2025-03-16 1.404209 3.732063 8.490630 18.067010 35.678143 65.137562 115.966258
2025-03-23 1.291513 3.628632 8.598245 18.912923 38.363339 71.564124 129.836034
2025-03-30 1.133564 3.394729 8.423162 19.228163 40.179204 76.748311 142.146604
2025-04-06 0.973156 3.118460 8.118654 19.255561 41.475572 81.148290 153.451233
2025-04-13 0.838335 2.873858 7.842612 19.302181 42.802207 85.676483 165.226339
2025-04-20 0.808671 2.909397 8.208105 20.731160 46.906761 95.379916 186.431029
2025-04-27 0.748744 2.843854 8.324379 21.630618 50.029228 103.477960 205.219392
2025-05-04 0.690487 2.768775 8.404988 22.455508 53.057463 111.563041 224.366168
2025-05-11 0.598940 2.563777 8.126185 22.431088 54.334855 116.449492 237.996779
2025-05-18 0.496813 2.291303 7.623454 21.819852 54.320942 118.872410 247.240758
2025-05-25 0.402538 2.012475 7.049559 20.958448 53.680866 120.024460 254.159752
2025-06-01 0.347355 1.860049 6.802381 20.868637 54.710293 124.485495 267.466960
2025-06-08 0.292887 1.689690 6.469855 20.516856 55.114765 127.708706 278.552653